Horizon Scanning and Foresight: An overview of approaches and possible applications in Food Safety

ii The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO's endorsement of users' views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via Acknowledgements FAO would like to express its appreciation to Lindsey McCrickard, Caroline Merten, Vittorio Fattori and Andrijana Rajić 1 who prepared this report. v Glossary Term Definition Driver A driver references the underlying cause of change. These may or may not be directly related to the issue at hand. Some examples of key drivers specific to food safety include globalization, changing demographics, farming intensification etc. Early Warning Rapid Alert Systems EWRA systems are systems that predict or detect issues (often outbreaks of disease) of potential serious consequence early on in the epidemiologic curve. The rapid alert portion to the system provides information to the public or key stakeholders in a quick fashion to allow for timely response to the issue identified. These are generally associated with ongoing and known hazards and do not predict potential emerging risks. Emerging Risk EFSA defines an emerging risk as a " …risk resulting from a newly identified hazard to which a significant exposure may occur or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard. " 1 Food Safety Defined by Codex Alimentarius as " … …